JB,

I am not sure which side of this argument I really believe, which is why I posted it here. But let me play devil's advocate with your posting.

1. The classic high profile example of the two prep failure was Point Given. He looked like a "short" horse in the Derby and then was super the rest of the year. Baffert helped make the point by specifically stating after the Derby that he made a mistake with the horse by having two preps. He said he wanted a fresh horse for the triple crown and didn't want him to be "over the top" by the Belmont.

2. You are saying that the 'result' of not having enough preps would be having a better race AFTER the Derby. However, one could also argue that running a demanding 1 1/4 without a proper foundation would result in damaging the horse and also causing a regression in the next start. Lion Heart would be a good example here. Many others without proper foundation were never good horses again, like Friend's Lake, Read the Footnotes, Anees.