For years now, I have been reading the pedigree analysis of derby contenders and looking for horses to bet that have a "classic" pedigree. But if you look at the last 5 years or so, I don't think this is a valid angle anymore. There has been tallk on this board about "horses getting faster" and I have also read articles about the "breed" in North America changing,with more influence on "speed" and less true "stamina" influences in the breed. I think this is reflected in analyzing the Derby winners recently. The "miler" type pedigrees have been very successful, where as in the past, you would throw those horses out. I think breeding is now an 'over-rated' angle in handicapping the derby. Here are the last few winners:

1. Smarty Jones - son of Elusize Quality with Smile on the dam side. Everything about this guy's pedigree said speed and not stamina. Supposed to be a brilliant miler, would up getting the classic distances easily.

2. Funny Cide - son of distored Humor, an excellent horse up to a mile. Funny Cide had some dam side stamina, but definitely did not come to the race with anything close to a "classic" pedigree.

3. War Emblem - another "speed" pedigree, this guy was a son of Our Emblem, and I remember reading many pedigree anaylysts saying 1 1/8 tops.

4. Monarchos - Probably the best bred of the last five winners. I don't remember the dam side, but he was a son of Maria's Mon and had a pretty low dosage from what I remember.

5. Fusaichi Pegasus - Nobody can deny he was regally bred, but Mr. Prospector is still a speed influence, more than a stamina influence. After the derby, his best race was the Jerome, which was a mile and many on this board feel his best races were at shorter distances.

You can go farther back and look at Real Quiet who had a dosage index of over 5.00 and also was supposedly suspect at 1 1/4 miles.

Even if you look at the second place finishers in two of the past three years, they were definitely "distance challenged" based on pedigree - Lion Heart and Proud Citizen.

Is it possible that a lot of the old axioms about distance horses winning the classics are not valid anymore? Just look for a fast horse, with a pedigree that at least says one mile. I am not saying we start betting sons of Carson City and Phone Trick, but milers that are precocious may be the right way to go.