Re: Beyer (423 Views)
Posted by:
richiebee (IP Logged)
Date: March 03, 2005 12:22PM
I'd rather be talking about catching a nice price on Naughty New Yorker if Pat Kelly would take Samyn off for the Louisiana Derby, but i can give you a little more on Crafty Player.
On Thursday Feb 24 I was at Aqueduct. My observation of the race was that CP won kind of easily. My friends at the track like to watch the paddock and warm up, I like to watch the gallop out and the pull up. After the race we all concurred that CP had the look of most of the in form Dutrow horses, which is kind of like the old Ferriola and Moschera horses from the late 1980s.
He raced close to the pace that day and was ridden confidently by Beajarano. The race fractions were:
23.85 46.81 58.87 1:11.68
The fifth race on 2/24 was a 22.5- 25k claimer. The race was won by Ace's Capella, trained by LaBocetta (In 03- 04, I thought he was a SOMETHING trainer, now I don't know). The fractions in Ace's race were:
23.88 47.20 59.04 1:11.53
A reasonable trainer might observe (without undue over-analysis)that the 25k race was not that much faster than the 12k race. I apologize for how naive that sounds.
My work schedule is such that I must sleep all afternoon Sunday. I didn't even know CP was entered. If I had been at Aqueduct, I can probably say I would have leaned into CP pretty heavily at 6/1 and in doubles. Good value, leading rider, leading trainer. An angle you have to like-- top %, or SOMETHING trainer moving a horse up in class.
And here's the part of it which is most despicable. If I had been at Aqueduct, and cashed a ticket on CP at $14.20, I wouldn't be thinking about snail venom or pigeon milk or shock wave therapy or the need for detention barns. I would be thinking about $14.20, and how much better that is than $14.00.