Re: Santa Catalina (384 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: March 03, 2005 09:55AM
CH,
2-1 on GW is a "fair" price in my mind. I am of the opinion that GW is quicker than Spanish Chestnut and will beat him to the lead. If the pace is really contested, then of course Declan gets the perfect trip. But I was not impressed with Declan's race at 1 1/16 when he beat Giacomo by 1 length.
One of the problems is that although I agree that Declan is not likely to be wound up 100%, take a look at Ron Ellis's numbers with this kind of layoff. 47%, 8 for his last 17. So, he usually has them wound up. Although I would definitely argue there is a big difference between winding up your claimers and allowance horses for their first start, versus winding up a horse that you want to go 1 1/4 on the first SAturday in May. But Declan's workouts look very sharp.
I will bite at 2-1 on GW, but I don't think I will get the price. The inside 3 are tomato cans.
I see something like
Declan 3-5
GW 9-5
SC 5-1
The others very long.