I like the analysis Michael. First off, they want to clear the tomato cans. Its a quick run to the first turn, so I think all three outside will be on the motor. You don't want to be wide. One of the two will probably show extra early foot. DeClans is front end but not speed crazed and he hasn't been trained to "bust it". I'll be surprised if he's not three wide or tucked in behind the other two. Its gonna be a question of being fit enough to be on the bridle with some accomplished two turn horses and outfooting them late from outside by all appearances at say 4-5?

Assuming the pace is legit and DeClan's puts forth the effort to overcome the impediments, how can the tomato can's not have their best case scenario? The speed has to go to clear and then in all likelihood wing at each other at high weights. Even if they are pure tomato can's do you think they will be losing or making up ground in the very end and in consideration of that, what of the track? And how much difference is there really in Spanish Chestnuts December 3rd race and DeClan's Moon's Hollywoood Futurity? Are they really that dissimilar?

Its an interesting race. It would be even more interesting with a horse like Afleet Alex or Sun King entered.

I think Going Wild is a little quicker, but he is a path more wide.

CtC



Post Edited (03-03-05 17:18)