Okay, Miller. Let's play.

So, Paul traced you back through the maze, and found that your posts originated from the same web host as the site you are pushing (in Belgium, no less). Some coincidence. He wanted to block you, I told him not to. Given that you didn't disclose your relationship, it's pretty obvious that anything you say is suspect. But let's go through the exercise:

1-- We know you say there has been some kind of betting profit, and if I looked at the site I'm pretty sure it would indicate that. Of course, a) we don't know whether those picks were made in advance or not, since you pointed them out retroactively, and b) we don't know whether there were others not listed during that period, and c) we don't know whether there were earlier periods that lost.

That particular stunt is what Ragozin pulled in his book-- he talked about his betting venture in Atlantic City, and how the DRF monitored it, and how he made over $100k in win bets and showed a 14% profit. That was all true, but he neglected to mention the 400k he bet into other pools, and that the venture as a whole was a significant loser-- Brad Free called him on it when he reviewed the book for the DRF. Ragozin cherry-picked the one set of results that made him look good. (And by the way, in the same chapter Ragozin delivered an open invitation for a handicapping contest with "any leading public handicapper to fight things out with my system, but I doubt very much that anyone with a reputation would accept the dare". The day after reading that I publicly challenged Len to a contest, and he turned me down, publicly).

And all this aside, even if everything was kosher, there are the questions of what OTHER things (like TG) factored into your plays, how much is attributable to pace data and handicapping, and what relevence a relatively short sample has at all.

2-- You have no idea whether runups and wind affect fractions? Really? That's pretty scary, especially if you are, as you appear, behind the data.

I have no idea whether your data is worth anything or not, but I know that what you have said here so far is not. If you want us to track your plays going forward, I'm sure someone out there will (Jimbo?). The interesting ones will be where your data and picks CONFLICTS with what we see on TG.

Welcome to the Thoro-Graph site.



TGJB