If you want to talk about pace handicapping and have it dovetail with TG handicapping, a good way to look at it is in terms of ground loss...

There is no inherent contradiction between pace handicapping and TG handicapping.

The advantage of being on the lead can be expressed in terms of ground loss. If a horse can control the pace, one of the main advantages he will have is NOT having to go five wide on the first turn. This "pace advantage" horse will be 1w-2w and make his own trip.

Horses that close face a potential disadvantage of having to go wide to get around the traffic when they make their move in the stretch.

There may be no real advantage to being on the lead (if there are a few early speed types), but this may not translate into an advantage for those who have to weave through the horses staggering and trying to hold on to the finish.

Jerry has discussed this at length on many occasions. Probably the BEST illustration of this that I can remember is when Buck's Boy won the BC Turf around three turns. Jerry is ALWAYS talking about trips from inside/outside posts and "saving ground", which for him is almost a euphemism for tactical speed.

Unfortunately, many people focus on the CLOCK, as opposed to ground loss. People who get involved in TG handicapping are basically shown some of the weaknesses or potential weaknesses of this clock-based approach.

The stuff about High Fly having tactical speed and a built-in advantage in a big field is right on the money. In my opinion, a lot of the other pace discussion here doesn't hold water, especially compared with the comparatively clear way of looking at it in terms of ground loss. This goes double if you're going to compound this with speculating about biases, etc. It's just churning the water without finding the fish, so to speak.

I think everybody should post what they want and I look forward to the pace guys either demonstrating their theories with actual pre-race handciapping or trying to "fold in" some of their ideas.

HP