Re: Why Would He Rate? (342 Views)
Posted by:
richiebee (IP Logged)
Date: April 16, 2005 10:33AM
If you have High Limit in the Derby future bet, or in Vegas, today should be very exciting. (Future R3= $28.40, R2= $21.80, R1= $61.80). I have no future wager on HL, nor will I be betting the BG, so there is no monetary concern with what I am about to say.
If HL wins wire to wire in the BG, he goes into Louisville having never been headed in his four lifetime races. Sure theres other speed in the Derby, but for the next 3 weeks you think about Smarty and War Emblem, and if your older, Sunny's Halo and Spend A Buck. HL's track odds off a w/w win in th BG--4/1? And by the way your entire Derby experience is not 2 minutes, but 2 seconds. He wil likely have to beat the gate to win the Derby.
But what if HL is engaged today for 3/8- 1/2 mile by Bandini, or Consolidator, or the quick bred Closing Argument at a good pace? If HL prevails, he has shown gameness for the first time, but will be attempting to win the Derby in his 5th L/T start.
If HL was able to RATE and win stalking another's pace, you would feel better about his chances in 3 weeks than you would under the 2 previously mentioned race scenarios.
If HL runs 2nd or 3rd in this race I can not see Frankel wanting to run him back at 1-1/4 miles in 3 weeks. But HL's owners, the Wests, will surely want to go. I dont know if owner or trainer wins this duel. I know who usually wins.
So if you fancy HL in the futures, today is BIG. HL almost has to win today to advance to the Derby; any of the other 4 contenders (CA, Consolidator, Sun King, Bandini) can run 2nd, 3rd or even 4th and re-emerge in Louisville. Good Luck.