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Re: Why Would He Rate? (342 Views)
Posted by: richiebee (IP Logged)
Date: April 16, 2005 10:33AM

If you have High Limit in the Derby future bet, or in Vegas, today should be very exciting. (Future R3= $28.40, R2= $21.80, R1= $61.80). I have no future wager on HL, nor will I be betting the BG, so there is no monetary concern with what I am about to say.

If HL wins wire to wire in the BG, he goes into Louisville having never been headed in his four lifetime races. Sure theres other speed in the Derby, but for the next 3 weeks you think about Smarty and War Emblem, and if your older, Sunny's Halo and Spend A Buck. HL's track odds off a w/w win in th BG--4/1? And by the way your entire Derby experience is not 2 minutes, but 2 seconds. He wil likely have to beat the gate to win the Derby.

But what if HL is engaged today for 3/8- 1/2 mile by Bandini, or Consolidator, or the quick bred Closing Argument at a good pace? If HL prevails, he has shown gameness for the first time, but will be attempting to win the Derby in his 5th L/T start.

If HL was able to RATE and win stalking another's pace, you would feel better about his chances in 3 weeks than you would under the 2 previously mentioned race scenarios.


If HL runs 2nd or 3rd in this race I can not see Frankel wanting to run him back at 1-1/4 miles in 3 weeks. But HL's owners, the Wests, will surely want to go. I dont know if owner or trainer wins this duel. I know who usually wins.

So if you fancy HL in the futures, today is BIG. HL almost has to win today to advance to the Derby; any of the other 4 contenders (CA, Consolidator, Sun King, Bandini) can run 2nd, 3rd or even 4th and re-emerge in Louisville. Good Luck.




Subject Written By Posted
Why Would He Rate? (649 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 04/15/2005 06:04PM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (407 Views) BitPlayer 04/15/2005 06:35PM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (418 Views) Silver Charm 04/15/2005 06:43PM
More on Rating (416 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 04/15/2005 06:44PM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (363 Views) gvido 04/15/2005 07:08PM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (463 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 04/15/2005 07:18PM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (375 Views) jimbo66 04/15/2005 10:22PM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (364 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 04/15/2005 10:50PM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (379 Views) MO 04/16/2005 09:33AM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (342 Views) richiebee 04/16/2005 10:33AM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (399 Views) SoCalMan2 04/16/2005 10:45AM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (409 Views) jimbo66 04/16/2005 10:52AM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (409 Views) jimbo66 04/16/2005 11:50AM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (382 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 04/16/2005 12:35PM
Re: Why Would He Rate? (404 Views) 04/15/2005 06:53PM


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