gvido wrote:

> Therein lies the difference between AA's romp and Bellamy's.
> Castellano was waving to the crowd at the 1/16th pole while
> Rose was knocking the hell out of AA. Hand ride---hard ridden.
> Got that Chuckles?
>

gvido, are you going out on a limb and predicting a Derby victory for Bellamy Road before the Lexington is even run? Or are you merely predicting a head to head matchup victory for Bellamy over Afleet Alex? If you're making a prediction, you should apparently consider saying it plain English and posting your exotics plays also.

I would point out the following however in saying that a 120 Beyer exceeds a 108 Beyer:

-Do you really have confidence in that 120 Beyer?, especially in consideration of the other distance race that day, and if not do you think you can equate a variant for the one and two turn races?;

-Do you think Beyer factored the ground loss into the equation in making his respective Beyer numbers?, and if not do you think that may be relevant in the coming race?;

-Do you think there may be horses entered in the Derby that may be able to run the last quarter faster than Bellamy Road?, especially in consideration of a contested pace scenario and a more energy draining surface, assuming you think those variables are likely to manifest themselves in the next race;

-Do you think the post position draw will be relevant in any way to this years Kentucky Derby?;

-Regarding Beyer Numbers, do you find it significant that in utilizing those numbers to predict Derby winners, Andy Beyer has never picked a winner of the Kentucky Derby?;

-Lastly, do you think a hand ride as opposed to some moderate urging is especially significant in regard to whether a horse has already run too fast for his own good? (Which is not offered to either suggest or refute that either Afleet Alex or Bellamy Road ran his last race too fast for his own good.)

I guess the 64,000 dollar question is: "Gvido, are you predicting Bellamy Road to win this Years Kentucky Derby?" Don't be shy, step on up.

Bally Ache, regarding replacing Rose on AA, I admire you're loyalty. I think the urging in the last part of the Ark was in regard to getting caught late in the B.C. Juvenile. It may have been slightly overdone, but I don't think its going to be significant. Still Rose is finding wide paths. Bailey has won two Derbies and both times they were masterful rides. He finds a way to find a hole and save ground. I would not trade Rose for Johnny V, he has no real history and is gonna have butterfiles, but I would trade for Bailey. If they can't get Bailey, its fate saying stick with Rose. I was livid when Frankel dumped Pincay on Megadeath, but Rose has a bright future and the chance to use Bailey is limited.

CtC



Post Edited (04-17-05 20:10)