Re: Spring 3yos (404 Views)
Date: April 26, 2005 08:20PM
I once did a study on the average margin between horses on fast tracks vs. very off tracks. The difference was quite significant. The average margin was much larger on very sloppy tracks.
I think you are sometimes screwed no matter how you interpret some very sloppy track results.
If you try to give the horses in the middle of the pack figures that make some sense you will sometimes wildly overrate the performance of the winner.
If you give the winner his expected figure you will sometimes underrate the performance of the mid pack horses.
I once played around with a beaten length adjustment factor that reduced the margins between the horses on a very sloppy track by an amount that made them consistent with typical fast tracks. Then I used the new beaten lengths to make the figures.
I found it "very useful" as a general tool in an inexact game, but it's not scientific enough to be appropriate for TG.
I think the reality is probably that a lot of horses just don't like extreme slop and others finish well beaten because of all the mud that's kicked up into their faces that they have to carry on their bodies. Of course there are some mud freaks out there too.
IMO, you have to take all figures earned under conditions like that with a grain of salt even if you are fairly confident in the methodology.
Post Edited (04-26-05 22:07)
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