Re: Spring 3yos (345 Views)
Posted by:
DeathBredon (IP Logged)
Date: April 27, 2005 09:53PM
Though the public and press often overate the track bias concept, often KEE really does have a strong bias, though it can change in the wink of an eye and is often incorrectly diagnosed.
For instance, Thunder Gulch's Bluegrass fig was a toss out due to the very deep track and very slow pace. He "bounced back" nicely at CD and he paid about 25-1 at the Derby, I think.
Tommorrow, in the Ben Ali, Zito's horse will test my theory that, on 4/9, the rail was live but Zito's horse got hung wide and had no shot. Throw out that fig. Thus, the horse may return to form and win for fun. Remember, you heard it here first. :-)
Also, speed-on-the-rail biases (common for sloppy tracks) can really distort figures both for the advantaged and against disadvantaged. Recall Go for Gin getting hung wide on the first turn at Gulfstream on a speed/rail favoring track. Naturally, GFG's race and fig was horrible that day. But, at the Derby, he had it his way and ran back to his prior big numbers.
Remember, how a fig is earned is often just as important as what the fig itself.