Contrarian:

All of what you say is interesting. The "5% betting/ 95% handle" doesn't seem accurate, but I have no facts/ figures to refute this with.

I have always wondered why TGJB and the other guy haven't limited the distribution of their product-- gone private if you will--to a smaller user base which would be willing to pay more than the twice a week racegoer such as myself would ever pay for such information. I guess the fact that the TGs are $25 per card and that you can download 180 or so DRF racecards for $150 does quite a bit to limit the TG user base in itself.

As you say, the public tends to make the fastest horse a short priced proposition in most cases. My most frequent bet is the Pick 4, and I can tolerate 1 (but only one)short price (2/1 or below) favorite in a 4 race sequence. But thank God that jockeys, bad trips and bad training cause these favorites to lose 65% (approx) of the time.

Sometimes as a contrarian you just know the public is very wrong. And with sweet memories of Rockport Harbor (out of the super, 3/5) and Galloping Grocer (out of the exacta, 4/5), I look forward to the final Wednesday at AQ before we shift to the Big B for the 100th anniversary celebration.