The best way to beat a big figure sheet horse that is shortish on odds and consquently beat some of the smart sheet money is to ascertain a bias that aided a sheet number and or a pace/trip issue that aided the number or a coming pace/trip scenario that will disadvantage the big fig horse. Or identitify a possible projection error and theorize an alternative projection that is plausible under the circumtances. I don't adhere to the a 1 is a 1 is a 1 theory. Most horses have distance limits, though some will say "Look at Ghostzapper!". I'll concede upon him when he has to run a legitimate race at 10 marks. Currently, Roses in May supports the proposition, (My sense is he caught a soft Dubai Cup however...still he won impressively), though I think just about every other competitive horse in the Classic broke down or had trip issues.

I've questioned the last three big figure races and it is possible that I'm all wet. Horses are getting faster, but I see issues in all three. If TGraph is borne out upon them I'll admit my error when I reach a conclusion. They could all have ruined themselves on huge efforts as well. Ghostzapper may be feeling the effects, hes still not back to the races.



Post Edited (04-27-05 11:26)