Re: NEGATIVE NUMBERS-JERRY (410 Views)
Posted by:
mbeychok (IP Logged)
Date: May 08, 2005 03:16PM
Look it is way too early to make any conclusions be they broad or specific about what detention barns and better testing will do or are doing. The facts are that Frankel's horses in Ky. have NOT run to their figures on a whole. Multiple losing favorites at both KEE and CD over the past week. Did he win some races? Sure, but I would guess no new tops. Pletcher isn't going to just suddenly stop winning races. C'mon! He's got better stock than Lukas/Baffert in their heyday. He'll win races because he's a good trainer (okay that's debatable)and he has superior stock. Romans had an un-Romans like Kee and CD as well. Now, I'm not pointing fingers but in the last week Dutrow had an un-Dutrow like 1-fer-10 at Belmont. What this does for those of us that use Thorograph figures and bet on these trainers is put us in a real dillema. I also use trainer patterns without figures (I know this is blaspehmous) but it works for me. I don't ask how a trainer gets a figure off a layoff or claim I just bet it. But, using figures that were earned by supertrainers' horses in the past is going to a difficult proposition going forward. How to subjectively evaluate a past figure with a general knowledge that the horse won't be on juice is..well, making this game much more difficult. It's still a wait and see what happens mode but I'm certainly taking closer looks at races where juice trainers' horses are going off big favs based on past figures if those juicers are cold.
By the way, have to post this. I bet Giacomo in the first future pool. IT was the only future I bet this year. But, i wouldn't have bet confederate money on him yesterday. I profited only because of my bad read on him in March.
Michael
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