mbeychok wrote:

> Look it is way too early to make any conclusions be they broad
> or specific about what detention barns and better testing will
> do or are doing. The facts are that Frankel's horses in Ky.
> have NOT run to their figures on a whole. Multiple losing
> favorites at both KEE and CD over the past week. Did he win
> some races? Sure, but I would guess no new tops.

They guys who were onto the new testing have postulated a theory that on its face cannot yet be disproven by track results. I still don't know precisely where or when the testing changed, so I can't investigate the theory fully. What seems even more important now is where the same or more stingent testing will be applied.

> Pletcher
> isn't going to just suddenly stop winning races. C'mon! He's
> got better stock than Lukas/Baffert in their heyday. He'll win
> races because he's a good trainer (okay that's debatable)and he
> has superior stock.

Bandini was only a 500K purchase. Coin Silver 65K. Pletcher has undoubtedly been juicing and if they are able to dry him up who is to say where he will rate. Has he been relying upon horsemenship or the juice?

Romans had an un-Romans like Kee and CD as
> well. Now, I'm not pointing fingers but in the last week Dutrow
> had an un-Dutrow like 1-fer-10 at Belmont. What this does for
> those of us that use Thorograph figures and bet on these
> trainers is put us in a real dillema. I also use trainer
> patterns without figures (I know this is blaspehmous) but it
> works for me. I don't ask how a trainer gets a figure off a
> layoff or claim I just bet it. But, using figures that were
> earned by supertrainers' horses in the past is going to a
> difficult proposition going forward. How to subjectively
> evaluate a past figure with a general knowledge that the horse
> won't be on juice is..well, making this game much more
> difficult. It's still a wait and see what happens mode but I'm
> certainly taking closer looks at races where juice trainers'
> horses are going off big favs based on past figures if those
> juicers are cold.

There was more to juice horses running without juice in the Derby (assuming they ran without it) Bandini and High Limit did not crash and burn on the juice issue. Frankel supposedly had High Limits foot looked at, but he's also supposedly headed to Pimlico, so the foot issue could be cover for inability to apply the mojo and lo and behold form reversal in the Preakness. I'm just skeptical of juice being that decisive a factor. Its an advantage, not a panacea.