Drugs the Real Reason or a convenient excuse? (523 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: May 08, 2005 05:42PM
We had a Derby yesterday where a 50-1 who was 19th fastest out of 20 horses on T-Graph figures, won the Derby. A 70-1 shot ran second. (he did figure better than that price on T-Graph. I believe Jerry said he was one of the ones to most likely run his race, although it likely wouldn't be fast enough). A "figure horse" who probably bounced, still ran 3rd, and then a horse coming back on 7 days rest, filled out the super. 1.7 million dollar superfecta.
The pace was hot, the rabbit did his job, and the race collapsed, run in what appears to be very slow time. At first glance, looks like maybe Closing Argument will be top figure.
The horse who T-Graph thought was the most likely to run his race, comes in dead last. Now, most of the talk on this board is that the drugs that were apparently used in these horses prevoius races, were not used yesterday.
that is one explanation, but it isn't the only one and there are at least questions that can be asked. Miff asked some on other threads, and I don't think he really got answers.
A lot of people on this board questioned the figure given to High Limit BEFORE the Derby, saying that he did not pair up. His Derby sure looks like a 0-2-X.
These numbers are getting too fast, too often. -5 on Bellamy Road, -3.25 on Bandini, -2 on Greeley's Galaxy and -2 on Afleet Alex. The fastest crop ever on T-Graph, yet this crop somehow looked average to "slow" on Beyer, with the big exception of Bellamy Road. A 103 Beyer for the Bluegrass is very slow for that race. Which set of figures is right?
The more damning case to me is Northern Stag, a horse who failed to break his maiden in 5 previous races, suddenly runs a negative 5 in a maiden race at Keenland. Jerry, he is the second fastest horse of all time on your figures. Does anybody in the world actually believe that Northern Stag is the second fastest horse of all time? Wildcat Shoes is a negative 3.25?
Yes, with these aberrations, we can just say "drugs" and move on. But is that really it?