Jimbo-- I'm tired and getting ready to leave, I'll take a fast pass at some of this. I'm guessing we will all be discussing this for a while.


1-- I'm not saying the NS figure is 2 points off, or that that would be acceptable, although that is certainly the typre of race you could get wrong, given that all but one Xed no matter what you do with it, and there is water in the track. What I'm saying is, there was no way to see that horse running either figure based on previous form-- in that sense neither figure is acceptable.

I would point out that the first time he ran it the figure seemed crazy for GZ too. NS will probably never see that figure again-- and it is now beginning to look like GZ might not either, at CD or NY, anyway.

2-- I haven't done the Derby yet, prob Mon or Tues, so I don't have any opinion on what they ran. But it would certainly make CA less likely to run a new top if his last was worse. Additionally, you are using the Derby as evidence the BG figure is wrong, and a) for reasons I have stated I think they are apples and oranges, and b)Bandini would certainly be no less likely to run WELL (as opposed to win) if that last was 2 points worse, and probably would be more likely.

As I said to Miff, I won't be tying the race to the horses who ran the negs last time out.

3-- I understand that the drug question is not settled. This is for us all to watch going forward.

4-- That last is an interesting question. You could come up with several possible reasons less horses run their tops in the Derby than other stakes (distance certainly being one, also trouble, the crowd, being pushed hard for months, etc.), but historically they have, regardless. Again, the only horse in the BG who got a new top in the BG was Bandini-- if you take him out of it, it's completely reasonable, and would look much worse with an add. And again, a) whether you believe he bounced in the Derby or was getting help in the BG,adding 2 doesn't make any more sense for Bandini, and b) CA would look worse. If anything, CA running well can be taken as confirmation of the BG figure.



TGJB