Jerry,

The only question I have missed is this bet you keep talking about. For the life of me I can't find your suggestion anywhere in the morass of strings that we have created.

So, what's the bet?

I have already dealt with your and Alydar's point on how you get a tight range without changing variants within a race. All you need is to start with the hypothesis that you start with -- the 'tight range' hypothesis. As long as you apply it to every race then your ranges will work out nicely.

Nobody (at least not me) is accusing you of dishonesty or fudging numbers. My complaint with your product has always been that it starts from a debatable premise (which is not in and of itself a sin) but then validates itself over and over again only by saying that 'it must be so because it must be so'. And I just think that you have had ample time over the years to quantify some of your track variant hypotheses but have either 1) failed to ever do the work, 2) did the work and saw that you were wrong but were committed to your hypothesis, or 3) have done the work, seen that it works but refuse to disclose that to anyone in public. I know that #3 can't be right b/c if it was you'd be all over Ragozin with your proof. So it's either 1 or 2.