John, there is an apparent O-X pattern in Afleet Alex's three year old form. He looked positioned for a good Preakness upon that angle. Alex didnt bounce and rebound as a 2YO though. Is there a viable reason for the difference between 2YO and 3YO form? Theres the two a days certainly. Theres the lung infection. Some interpreted the Derby as a subtlely taxing trip, bias factored. Was it? (The Preakness but for the stumble was a dream route) But per Ritchey, the two a days are suspended due to the nature of the Belmont Stakes. If Alex is on an O-X pattern he's due for the bad race next. Is he on an O-X pattern?

JohnTChance wrote:

> My two cents contribution to this thread is that over the
> years, generally, the sheets lines
> of Tim Ritchey's horses have had a tendency to zig-zag up and
> back. Bounce up, bounce down.
> A goodie is followed by a lesser effort, which is then followed
> by a relative goodie again. Etc.
> For example, take AFLEET ALEX's last few: An off-the-layoff
> orgasm [-0] is followed by a big
> bounce disaster [11], which [obviously, after being injected]
> was followed by the terrific
> Arkansas Derby smasher [-2], which was followed by the lesser
> Kentucky Derby run [2.5] ,
> which was followed by the terrific Preakness top. Zig up, then
> zig down. Bounce up, then
> bounce down. Last year, I asked Jerry for the sheets of most of
> Tim Ritchey's horses - like
> 50 of them? - for the purpose of getting a line on how they
> react in certain situations - second
> -timers, layoffs, etc. - apart from just the stats. And, I
> think, the sheets of his horses bear this out.
> Even MARCIANO, Ritchey's Preakness entry in 2001 has this
> zig-zaggy pattern to a great extent.
>
> Big deal? All horses bounce, right? "You've just described The
> Bounce Theory 101.
> What's profound about that?" Well, maybe nothing. But maybe the
> point is - duhh - that
> each trainer's horses "react" to tops in a unique way that's
> tied to the way they train
> their horses, and how their horses are vetted. For example,
> maybe Ritchey's horses
> react in a certain way. But other trainer's horses react
> differently. For example,
> see the NO-BOUNCE "steroid line" repeat of Rick Dutrow's WILLY
> OF THE VALLEY,
> who won the sprint stake earlier last Saturday. To get a line
> on how each trainers
> horses react, maybe you have to look at a large sampling of his
> work.
>
> Anyway... AFLEET ALEX's zig-zaggy line is now obvious, and the
> key question of the
> Belmont Satkes in two weeks is exactly how much he'll bounce
> up. Can he bounce
> as high as a 0.5 and still win? Will he bounce higher? Your
> move.
>
> JohnTChance
>
>