CTC wrote:

>there is an apparent O-X pattern in Afleet Alex's three year old form. He looked positioned for a good Preakness upon that angle. Alex didnt bounce and rebound as a 2YO though. Is there a viable reason for the difference between 2YO and 3YO form? Theres the two a days certainly. Theres the lung infection. Some interpreted the Derby as a subtlely taxing trip, bias factored. Was it? (The Preakness but for the stumble was a dream route) But per Ritchey, the two a days are suspended due to the nature of the Belmont Stakes. If Alex is on an O-X pattern he's due for the >bad race next. Is he on an O-X pattern?

Why not the 0-X in Afleet Alex as a 2 yr. old?

I don't have a clue. But, my personal thought is that any horse that runs a 2 in July of their 2 yr old year AND THEN KEEPS RUNNING THE 2 FIVE MORE TIMES IN A STRAIGHT LINE [!!!] though November... is clearly the posterboy of a steroided horse. The classic no-bounce line.

When AA came out with the exceptional 0 off the layoff as a more mature 3 yr. old and tubed badly next out, his line took on a whole new dimension.

I certainly feel he'll bounce in the Belmont. To a 2-ish?

JohnTChance