Re: What a Light Weight (437 Views)
Date: May 30, 2005 01:04PM
I think there are two problems with having overly high expectations for GZ for today.
1. Frankel or no Frankel, it is very difficult to get a horse ready to win a "high quality" Grade 1 race off a long layoff. IMO, there's a MASSIVE difference between getting a horse ready to fire close to his best figure in a Grade 2 prep race against comparative bums and getting him ready to fire his absolute best figure in the Met Mile where the pace is almost certain to tough and demanding and several horses are budding stars.
2. I would not underrate either Love of Money or Forest Danger. Both of them are lightly raced budding stars.
If GZ wins today, IMO it won't matter much if he runs a -1 or a -4 to do it. There's no way this horse is 100% today even if he's fit enough to run a -6 against garbage cans or when a race falls apart in front of him (which could happen today).
IMO, it would probably be better training to bring him back running a -2 and accept the result than having him sharp enough to put up a -4 or faster trying to win.