Mike:
Good job in the Peter Pan last week.

The Acorn is a legit Grade 1 with 5 of 6 entrants showing a Graded Stakes win. I think Splendid Blended, obviously talented, will be overbet based on connections (Drysdale/Bailey). She has never competed in a one turn race. Drysdale's win %, which used to be nearly 25%, now 15%, with a 9% strike rate in graded stakes according to DRF. I look to In the Gold, wet winner, Belmont winner, 3/4 in one turn races, to give NPZ his first stakes win as a Hall of Fame inductee. She has had a month up at Oklahoma to rebound from a full Spring campaign.

In the late multiple race sequences (P3/P4), I will be looking to beat another short price based on connections type runner in the 7th: Grey Traffic, off the layoff for Bailey/Frankel, has already lost at 1/5 and 8/5 at Belmont. According to NYRA, GT will race with an aluminum pad on, but unfortunately NYRA's record when making these types of announcements is not perfect.

Much rain overnight here in NY, track condition will be key. There has been much talk about the depth of cushion changing over the years. I have yet to see a detailed discussion of the type of heavy equipment which is being used to maintain these racing surfaces (floats, harrows, rollers, etc) and what if anything a track super can do during the card to eliminate a percieved bias. I have always been interested to see that in some instances the harrows are pulled against the direction of racing between races, and wondered what the intended effect of that was.

I knew a handicapper at Monmouth in the 80s who always brought tidal information to the races. He was convinced that certain tidal factors determined how effective speed would be for that day's races.



Post Edited (06-04-05 11:53)