I have some questions /observations regarding the use of Thoro- patterns. I realize these patterns are relatively new and that there may not be answers to my questions yet.

Question 1-- Size of sample. Let me reproduce 3 Thoro Patterns from the CD card on Derby day:

Deer Lake ST TOP PAIR OFF X
OFF/ X/ PAIR 684 8 29 30 32

Elijah's Song
TOP/ OFF/OFF 280 9 24 36 31


GP Fleet
OFF/ X/ OFF 99 2 21 43 33

Is anybody keeping track of how accurate these patterns are? Should we pay less attention to the TP in GP Fleet's case because of the relatively small size of the sample? Should we be twice as influenced with the information in Deer Lake's pattern in relation to Elijah's Song based on the size of the sample?

How many patterns currently exist in the TG database? What percent of these patterns yield more than a 15% chance of the animal reaching a new top? I randomly chose a card at CD, and counted 100 or so entrants with Thoro Patterns (no Euros, no 2YOs); of these 100, 70 or so exhibited patterns which gave them less than a 10% chance of running a new top.

Disregarding T- Patterns for a moment, statistically, what percentage of all runners post new tops on a given race day? When we analyze a race, and say that an animal needs to post a new top to have a chance of winning, we are asking quite a bit, aren't we?

Refer back to GP Fleet's TP, which predicts a 2% chance of GP running a new top; if you look at trainer Steve Flint's TG figure based trainer profile, of his 264 Overall starters, 16% ran a new top. What's a handicapper to do?

My pet peeve with regard to the TG patterns is what I call the "wash" pattern. Here is a pattern from a Derby entrant:

Buzzard's Bay ST Top Pair Off X
Pair/ Top/ Pair 185 20 34 25 22

(Bellamy Road had a similar pattern with a much smaller number of starters). The pattern for Buzzard's Bay tells you there is pattern wise an equal chance that BB would run a lifetime best race or one of the worst races of his life. At this point the patttern is creating chaos and it might be good to look at the trainer TG profile.

I guess more important than the T- Pattern or the trainer profile is each individual animal's pattern-- what type of efforts precede the animal's winning efforts. As i have mentioned before, TG is a very thorough (no pun intended) tool in that it goes back throughout the animal's entire career; I believe that TG could be even more helpful if the animal's winning efforts were somehow identified.