I guess with the Belmont Stakes just 5 days away, we should start a thread on the race. Any thread on this race has to start with Afleet Alex and whether there is a viable reason to bet against him. He is coming in off a negative 2 3/4, his second really big number this year. Of course if he pairs up, he wins. My first reaction after the Preakness was that I won't waste money betting against AA again in the Belmont. Two weeks has passed and the urge to take another shot against him is back!

Maybe I am reaching, but does anybody see the real similarity between Afleet Alex and the last three Belmont favorites, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones and War Emblem. All four horses were viewed as very suspect at 1 1/4 going into the derby, based on the fact they were sired by milers. After the Derby, many "redboarders" started to notice the dam side stamina influences. Then, all four had very impressive Preakness wins, all blowoutes except War Emblem who did get a little scare late. Then going into the Belmont, most of the "distance questions" for the previous 3 disappeared and they were solid favorites in the Belmont. We all know the previous three stumbled in what I think is the last TRUE distance race in the U.S. for 3-year olds.

Now, I am not saying that the distance is what got the previous three beaten, it could have been the "bounce", the long campaign, or in W.E's case, the stumble. But nonetheless there were good betting opportunities in going against those horses. (If you could find the winner, Empire Maker was not too hard to find, the other two, much harder).

Afleet Alex figures even money if the field stays in tact. The problem is in finding somebody to beat him. War Emblem ran against Perfect Drift and Medaglia D'Oro, as well as the winner Sarava. Funny Cide ran against Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted. Smarty ran against Birdstone, Eddington and Rock Hard Ten. To date, none of the opponents of Afleet Alex have near the credentials as those horses, although at the time of the Belmont, some of those horses were not as good as they now appear.

Who can step up? Giacomo is the Derby winner, and off of paired up "0's", I can't blame anybody for taking a shot with him at what will probably be attractive odds of 5 or 6 to 1. Not for me though.

Andromeda's Hero and his big "gallop out after the wire" moves? If he was 15-1 or so, maybe, but I suspect he will be single digit odds, probably not appetizing enough.

I am interested in seeing the T-Graph figures/patterns on three horses. Reverberate,Pinpoint,and Chekhov, in that order. Reverberate ran on well in the Peter Pan, well clear of 3rd. He got a 106 Beyer, which is better than anybody except Afleet Alex. He was pointing to the Belmont, unlike Oratory, so he may not have been fully cranked for the Peter Pan. He has tactical speed in a race that suddenly has very little speed in it, and should get a nice trip, possibly saving ground. He is by Thunder Gulch, so we know he can get the distance. I wish he had a different trainer as I know nothing about Sal Russo, but he could be worth a bet at 12-1. Pinpoint is coming in off three straight wins, all "wire to wire", none of which were accomplished from the 1 path, so I am guessing that his T-Graph figures might appear better than his Beyer figures. The Sir Barton to the Belmont angle was successful with Sarava and there were actually a couple of "runners" in that Sir Barton race, so the win might be better than it looks on paper. Another with good speed and a likely ground saving trip. The last is Chekhov. I am slightly intrigued in that he was so well thought off, off the maiden score, then got a really wide trip. I want to see what those T-Graph figures are before I decide if he is worth a bet, but he is at least interesting.

Thoughts?



Post Edited (06-06-05 10:57)