Jimbo,

"All four horses were viewed as very suspect at 1 1/4 going into the derby, based on the fact they were sired by milers."

I had the exact same thought.

I would like to take another stab against him if he's even money. I think he is even more vulnerable on running style than some of the others. The general public assumes that closers do better at the longer distance, but that is very often not the case. I could easily see AA losing that big late burst at 12 furlongs and hanging badly.

I haven't given much thought to who can beat him, but Giacomo was also suspect at 10F. So I'm not thrilled with that option either.