That's the excuse I consider least likely because he's been such a model of consistentency other than when he was sick. I am more inclined to use that excuse when a speed figure is very fast relative to the horse's typical performance and the horse has a history of physical problems, it was earned off layoff etc...

More often than not these very fast figures are earned under optimal conditions (like a very favorable bias/pace, easy field, etc..) or are no different than a 150 bowler having a single 200 game and then reverting back. We all have good and bad days around the "average" and easy conditions don't mean we actually played better.

It may just be a matter of us having different definitions for the term bounce.

In AA's case. He's a 3YO. He supposed to be getting better, but they rarely get better in a perfectly straight line. Plus, there were obvious conditions in that Derby that could account for it - like his ability to get 10F, a move that "MAY" have been mistimed a bit etc.. He did run quite well for 9F or so before crawling home.

If this race was 9F I would consider him a HUGE favorite.

If he makes a bid, hangs a little and either wins or doesn't tomorrow I doubt it will involve bouncing off the Preakness.








Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 06/10/2005 09:35AM by classhandicapper.