Alex did look a little short in the Derby, but how much was the rough trip and bounce from a HUGE Ark effort? In the Derby Alex was banged around pretty good twice, not as far off the pace as many think by the third call and he ran a good deal of the race on deeper parts of the track.

Obviously, he can't be bet to win here. If you think he can get the 12 marks he would have to be a odds on key and that is hard to stomach.

His two explosive moves at 9 and 9.5 marks certainly look to be able to carry him with authority to 10 marks, but the question is what about 12? Personally, I think he can do it, though the distance makes it a very tough race and have not picked the winner since Lemon Drop Kid's year.

Birdstone filled me with enthusiasm last year. Unfortunately it was second place enthusiasm. This year, you have to look at Indy Storm and Reverberate and think that they are the likely upsetters at 12.