Cnl 7/16: The Va Derby (689 Views)
Posted by:
Michael D. (IP Logged)
Date: July 15, 2005 05:41PM
rebel rebel - tough call. ran very well in the english 2000 guineas, earning a competitive TG figure, then flopped in the irish version over much softer ground. should prefer the cnl surface (that's probably why he's in the us). first lasix, the rail, bailey, light weight, first frankel - can anybody leave this guy out?
chatt - blinkers, a quick work, and pval - he will probably break running. the horse has hung a bit though when facing the good ones, not sure 10f will be his best game. competitive figs. a contender, but i will take a stand against.
prince rahy - just ran last week and no rider announced. probable scratch.
english channel - should sit a perfect trip in behind CW and SW. "3" top makes him the fastest, and i think the horse had some gas left in the tank last out. i looked and looked for a reason to try and beat him at low odds - couldn't find one.
crown point - seems stuck in the "8" range. finished well going 9f last, and is bred to get 10f. wouldn't surprise me if he made a nice late run here, but lack of # power is a concern.
spring house - not sure he can break through the "7" lvl.
silver whistle - "7" last makes him a bit slow, but there are a few positives. dominguez always seems to save ground on turf (1.8 path), and he has an amazing $2.35 turf roi. i expect a perfect trip, hopefully on the front end. SW also gets in with 116 lbs. i don't think he can win unless the other jocks fall asleep, but i will use underneath.
rush bay - second fastest coming in, and a definite contender, but i will try and beat. might not get the best trip. starts from the 8 hole, and albarado often finds it difficult to save ground (2.2 path). also carries high weight of 120. even a repeat of the "4.75" might turn into a "7" after ground and weight.
interpatation - a bit of a tough trip last, but has been stuck at the "8" lvl for a while. pass from post 9
rey de cafe - had a nice looking pattern heading into the hill prince, then got bottled up in that race, and only had run for about 3/16 of a mile. bred to get 10f on top and bottom. i am looking for a very nice run from this guy, maybe in the "3-4" range. castellano is good at saving ground (1.9 path), but post 10 is a problem. jj either has to pull way back, or take the ground loss. a use form me.
i have to go with english channel on top. i will use rebel rebel, silver whistle, and rey de cafe underneath in the tri and super, hope SW gets in there at long odds, as the others won't offer much value.