Re: Cnl 7/16: The Va Derby (402 Views)
Posted by:
Caradoc (IP Logged)
Date: July 16, 2005 01:43PM
Michael: Very good analysis. For what it's worth:
Rebel Rebel - Given the time since the 2000 Guineas, Frankel and lasix, it is highly likely this guy runs back to his 5. And he gets the rail. This horse is tough in here and a must-use.
Chattahoochee War - His last three make him very competitive in here. This one has never really bounced and could have another forward move in him. Further, he probably hits the front early and saves ground from the two box. Also very tough -- this could be a Frankel exacta.
Prince Rahy - is out.
English Channel - It seems to me there are reasons to be concerned about his line. First of all, a 3 in April is a huge grass figure for a 3yo. So he runs it, then sits out for 38 days and bounces to a 7, with trouble in that race. How much did the trouble affect the fig? While it's impossible to precisely determine, I've watched the replay now twice this morning on racereplays and it does not appear to have been significant. Still, let's say it cost him a point. Had he bounced 3 points off a 38-day layoff I would be concerned. My concern is heightened by the fact that he didn't quite get back to his top in his last. The 4 is likewise a big effort for a grass 3yo in June, which leads me to conclude that he is likely to go back off only three weeks rest. I wouldn't throw him out by any means, but I don't see why he should be favored over either Frankel horse.
Crown Point - He sure does seems stuck in the 8 range. I expected him top run a lot better last time, particularly inasmuch as 2nd off the layoff is Donk's move. Is there any reason to expect anything but another 8 here?
Silver Whistle - It's hard for me to see anything better than a 7 here (and maybe worse), which will not get it done.
Rush Bay - I'd love to beat this one as well, but he makes me nervous. While he has reacted off the tops before, he eventually will break through. Today could be the day so I have to use him.
Rey De Cafe - This one ran big on the grass at 2 and his pattern looks a little flat to me. Given that, I wouldn't expect a backward move but off this line my guess is he runs in the 5-6 range, which might be tricky considering his post.
Good luck to all, but you better have Frankel on your tickets.
Peter
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