Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  2024 Kentucky Oaks/Derby Days Final Figures Churchill Downs May 3 & May 4, 2024 
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Re: Cnl 7/16: The Va Derby (402 Views)
Posted by: Caradoc (IP Logged)
Date: July 16, 2005 01:43PM

Michael: Very good analysis. For what it's worth:

Rebel Rebel - Given the time since the 2000 Guineas, Frankel and lasix, it is highly likely this guy runs back to his 5. And he gets the rail. This horse is tough in here and a must-use.

Chattahoochee War - His last three make him very competitive in here. This one has never really bounced and could have another forward move in him. Further, he probably hits the front early and saves ground from the two box. Also very tough -- this could be a Frankel exacta.

Prince Rahy - is out.

English Channel - It seems to me there are reasons to be concerned about his line. First of all, a 3 in April is a huge grass figure for a 3yo. So he runs it, then sits out for 38 days and bounces to a 7, with trouble in that race. How much did the trouble affect the fig? While it's impossible to precisely determine, I've watched the replay now twice this morning on racereplays and it does not appear to have been significant. Still, let's say it cost him a point. Had he bounced 3 points off a 38-day layoff I would be concerned. My concern is heightened by the fact that he didn't quite get back to his top in his last. The 4 is likewise a big effort for a grass 3yo in June, which leads me to conclude that he is likely to go back off only three weeks rest. I wouldn't throw him out by any means, but I don't see why he should be favored over either Frankel horse.

Crown Point - He sure does seems stuck in the 8 range. I expected him top run a lot better last time, particularly inasmuch as 2nd off the layoff is Donk's move. Is there any reason to expect anything but another 8 here?

Silver Whistle - It's hard for me to see anything better than a 7 here (and maybe worse), which will not get it done.

Rush Bay - I'd love to beat this one as well, but he makes me nervous. While he has reacted off the tops before, he eventually will break through. Today could be the day so I have to use him.

Rey De Cafe - This one ran big on the grass at 2 and his pattern looks a little flat to me. Given that, I wouldn't expect a backward move but off this line my guess is he runs in the 5-6 range, which might be tricky considering his post.

Good luck to all, but you better have Frankel on your tickets.

Peter



Subject Written By Posted
Cnl 7/16: The Va Derby (690 Views) Michael D. 07/15/2005 05:41PM
Re: Cnl 7/16: The Va Derby (407 Views) 07/16/2005 10:52AM
Re: Cnl 7/16: The Va Derby (382 Views) JEB 07/16/2005 12:21PM
Re: Cnl 7/16: The Va Derby (376 Views) 07/16/2005 01:36PM
Re: Cnl 7/16: The Va Derby (402 Views) Caradoc 07/16/2005 01:43PM
Re: Cnl 7/16: The Va Derby (420 Views) Michael D. 07/16/2005 07:14PM
Re: Cnl 7/16: The Va Derby (369 Views) Caradoc 07/17/2005 12:22PM
Re: Cnl 7/16: The Va Derby (401 Views) Michael D. 07/17/2005 01:13PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.