IMHO, High LImit is the most likely winner today, though I would have favored Scrappy T over him because I think ST's Wood performance chasing Bellamy Road's pace is generally underrated. Scrappy is a nice solid horse with 3 good performances in a row and good speed.

Now though, I think it's pretty clear HL was aimed for this race. I see no reason he can't control the race on the lead even if there's someone like SK stalking him.

IMHO, he was overrated in the spring because of the speed figure "everyone" gave him for the LD race. IMO, there was nothing wrong with the Louisana Derby figure the way some suggest. It was just a generally non-comeptitive affair on a flukey track where the horses walked around the track 1 - 2 -3 with no challenges. HL was the loose easy leader getting the easiest kind of trip. He ran OK in the BG (in the controversial figure), had no chance in the Derby because of the pace setup and some trouble. He ran fine in the Preakness given that he was battling off Once Wild in a mildly fast pace at a distance that might have been a hair too far. If he doesn't win today, then he just doesn't have the "goods". He's been a decent, if very overrated horse all along and today's a day he can shine.

Sun King showed some ability last year and came back running in his debut -leading everyone to believe he was a leading TC candidate. IMHO, he hasn't done much since and has probably been overbet in every race since then because of his reputation. I don't think he should be favored today but he might be because of that reputation. These are the kinds of situations that Zito sometimes does well in, but not with my money (obviously not a Zito fan) . IMO, this horse should be 2nd choice and I won't have any trouble ripping up a ticket on HL if they make SK a solid favorite here. IMO, his best chance to win is stalking HL in a slow pace and hoping HL comes up empty.




Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/17/2005 11:41AM by classhandicapper.