I don't think the La Derby figure is wrong, but you cannot really dispute the fact that horses coming out of that race have been "bet againsts".

I guess some don't think there is such a thing as a "key race" or "negative key race", but it would seem that the La Derby fits the latter. High Limit hasn't won since (I will you give you that the Bluegrass race was probably fast), Kansas City Boy was awful, Vicarage was awful until this past weekend, Storm Surge (not run well since), Scipion (did he run again?)

Jerry, in a related topic, I saw your post about High Limit and his figure being not so bad in the race Sunday after you adjust for ground loss and such, but take a step back and look at this horse. Isn't it time to "cut bait" on him? He earned a "1" as a two year old. He goes to a high profile barn like Frankel's, and doesn't run a lick in the Derby, gets trounced in the Preakness, and now comes in 3rd in a five horse race at Delaware, losing to a horse that ran the day before and then shipped. I know he was your Derby pick and Preakness pick and either you or Allan picked him again this week in the ROTW, but it seems that chasing horses like this is a way to go the poor house. For whatever reason he has not progressed from 2 to 3. Even if you give him the two "pairups", healthy 3 year olds don't run 5 races at 3 without getting a new top.

It would seem it is time to give up on this horse. Anyway, Chuckles likes the horse, so I am probably wrong and he will win the BC Classic.........