On the key race question, I don't believe that simply being associated with an event makes a horse better or worse. (The line I used on Post Time was, "I was a decent schoolyard basketball player who had occasion to play with some much better players. Afterwards, unfortunately, I was still just a decent schoolyard player"). But most of those horses just weren't running that fast, and didn't figure to win even if they ran their race in later spots (with the exception of Vicarage, who has a history of cycling to and from big efforts, and again, CH, leave it alone).

HL is a tough question. At this point he looks like an early developer. My guess is that he will get around a 2 or so here (that gives SK his zero), before adjusting for the OP, so in effect he may have run back to his top. By now he should have broken through, so that ain't great. I doubt I'll be playing him next time at level weights against top 3yos-- they have been developing, and he has not, so running bak to his top won't do it. But if he is ever going to break through, next time is probably his last shot as a 3yo, so I won't be throwing him out at a price if a 2 point move makes him a winner.