Jerry,

You said you are going to keep an eye on it going forward, so maybe my posting is not necessary, but I am going to play devil's advocate on the LITF number being too slow.

I don't see the driving force to break this race out and add 3+ points. By doing so, you wind up with a six horse race with the following:

Qurreall gets his 4th "5" in a row. So as a healthy 3 year old, he shows no improvement over 4 races.

Hot Space - gets basically a pair up in his second race of the year, for a trainier (Ziadie) who is not a layoff trainer, and it could be likely that a 3 year old will improve in his second start of the year.

Cin Cin, Dazzling Dr Cavin and Crawfish King all get major regressions.

Lost in the Fog gets a new top. His last race was run on a day where the track variant went crazy and he beat a horse coming in off of paired negative 3's, earning only a "1" in the race. (And you have said that you will have to recheck that figure already).

So, in a race of 3 year olds, none of whom has run very much this year, we had one of six horses run a new top. 3 regressed and two paired up.

What is the figure that you often use for healthy 3 year olds running new tops? I don't remember off the top of my head, but I thought it was reasonably high.





Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/19/2005 05:15PM by jimbo66.