SC,

I thought Watchmaker's article was a tad harsh. LITF has strung 8 races in a row without ducking anyone in his category. That category is "3YO sprinter". There aren't many 3YO sprinters that are world beaters in the spring and early summer. So yes, the competition he has been beating has hardly been career defining, but some were OK. His figures have only been "fair" relative to the typical Grade 1 older sprinter, but they have been "ahead of the curve" all year for a 3YO. If he continues to move forward between now and the BC sprint, I think he'll be a force to reckon with.

However, IMHO, when pressed at 7F both early and then late by Egg head at Belmont (on a track that IMHO was tilted slightly to speed) he demonstrated both from a winning margin and speed figure point of view that he would be very vulnerable at this stage of his career to the type of extreme heat one typcially sees in a solid Grade 1 event for older horses (like the BC) where the pace is fast, contested, and you generally have to beat off several tough challenges and still earn a big figure to win.

IMHO, his Calder sprint was fast enough, but he won't have a handful of limited winners without enough ability to even challenge him let alone pressure him when he faces the big time in the BC. Trips don't get any easier than his last and tougher than in the BC. He's going to have to continue improving between now and BC day to get the job done and prove he's special.







Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 07/21/2005 11:44AM by classhandicapper.