Michael-- are you saying you think Ulta Pop ran equally well on 6/11 when he won, and the time after, when he got beat 18 1/2? And do you really believe that every time a horse runs 7f he figures to run the same figure?

As for tying later races to the 6/11 race-- the horses in those later races came out of LOTS of different races, not just the 13th on 6/11. Looks to me like there was only one race that more than one horse ran back in (7/4).