In Jimbo66's post on the thread about comparing sheets, he mentioned how he sees a "0-2" and feels a horse is going to "X."

I know Jimbo66 was not focusing on patterns but trying to illustrate something else, but I wanted to get some clarity on the famous "0-2-X." I always thought that the "0-2-X" was not a theory for predicting an "X" but rather intended to predict a new top. In other words, you tend to see "0-2-X-NEW ZERO."

Have I understood correctly the theory on "0-2-X?" I do not apply strict rules to my sheet reading and look at each sheet individually to determine how I think the pattern will influence today's number, so this is something I am weak on. While it seems to me that there are certainly times where a "0-2" will lead to an "X" (especially with an older cheap animal or where the "0" was an insane or unsupported new top), there are other times where a "0-2" can be a very positive pattern. For example, a 3 year old who was 8-5-8-4 as a 2 year old comes back at 3 and a 4-2-4 with nice spacing, I would play such an "0-2" to make a new top and certainly run no worse than the "2" with a very high likelihood of pairing up the "0" if the new top does not come. Of course, the odds you are getting can always influence what you end up doing, but I would not be confident that such a horse would be "X"-ing.

If, and this is a big if, I am correct that a "0-2-X" is supposed to portend a new and better top, has anybody developed any sort of theory as to why this is? Is the idea that the small bounce off the top indicates that the top is a real, well-supported top and should not be that hard a top to improve further on? I would still be leery of a "0-2-X" if it showed up on a 7 year old claimer. These guys often move in cycles and all you are seeing in a "0-2-X" is the down slope off a peak. Often, the period of the cycle may be determined more by time than it will be by hitting the opposite side of the cycle.