SoCal-- historically, sheets theory was that a top followed by a 2 point backward move was likely to result in an "X", and that there was a good chance for a good race following that, at a price, due to the public taking the X too seriously. Even that was too simplistic-- X's are much more significant on some horses than others (like ones that seldom run them, or stake horses). But nowadays horses bounce much less (and less often) than they used to, due to better sportsmedicine, and a lot of those old patterns have to be viewed in a different light. That's why we only went back a few years with the Thoro-Patterns-- we could have increased sample size by going back farther, but that would have been doing the apples/orange thing you-know-who is so fond of. (And by the way, most discussion of patterns from several years ago, whether on tapes or anywhere else, is outdated at this point).

Bottom line, the right way to approach these questions is to realize it's all percentages, and that there are a lot of complicating factors. That's exactly what the Thoro-Patterns are for-- a new top followed by a 2 point backward move (0-2) would be top-off, an 0-2-X top-off-X. When you are trying to decide what to do with (for example) a May 3yo coming off an 0-2-X, look at the TP percentages, keeping in mind the distinctions I made in my original discussion of the TPs (hopefully available somewgere on this site). If the top is a 6 point new top after 15 races, that's not the same as a 2 point top with a previous paired top after a six race career. Etc., etc.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/01/2005 11:35AM by TGJB.