Question on Measuring Development (859 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: September 06, 2005 04:56PM
Jerry,
The question of how much a horse has developed during a current year and accordingly, how likely is that horse to develop further in the next race, came up during the Sunday seminar. I wish I could remember which exact horse it was, but I can't, so I will have to give you an example without having the horse's name.
By the way, Allan, don't be offended that I am asking Jerry the same question I asked you, it is just that I am struggling a bit with the logic and am seeking a second opinion. (Think of it like seeking a second medical opinion).
Here is the example:
The horse runs his first race on dirt, in a sprint, and runs a 19.
He comes back second time and is switched to turf, around two turns. He runs an 11.
He runs a third time, again turf route, and runs a 9.
The horse is bred for turf routes.
In analyzing his form and pattern, you could say he has already developed 10 points this year and as such, is unlikely to develop further.
or
I thought you could "discount" the first race, assume turf is his game, and not hold the 10 points of development against him, saying he could still move forward.
As it turned out, for the sunday race, allan was right and the horse didn't move forward.
I had previously thought of development more in terms of year over year though. In other words, his 2 year old top was 12, his three year old top is 6, so has already developed 6 points.
Not so much, development within a year. Sometimes a horse runs crap first time out, gets a 30 or some other slow figure. Then he moves way up second time out to a 15. Did he really "develop" 15 points or was the first race just bad.
Anyway, just wondering what you thought.
Jim