jimbo,

I had a similar question regarding the use of improved turf figures when a horse returns to dirt. I've since been told that the ROI for top figure horses that earned that figure on turf and today are switching to dirt is more negative than the expectation. I'm not sure if you would want to apply that information in this case, but I would.

I once studied the Beyer figures for 2YOs and 3YOs. In that study, the horses improved about an average of 1.2 Beyer points per month. Not sure exactly how that translates into TG points. Obviously some move forward a real lot and others hardly at all.

I think you have to make a subjective judgement when it comes to this.

If the horse's sire generally produces precocious horses, that would say one thing about the horse's potential improvement later in the year (or the next year). If not, the opposite.

If the trainer tends to bring his horses out really sharp at first asking (or at least early) that would say one thing. If not, the opposite.

If the horse is especially well bred, it is more likely to improve.

If the horse is trained by a leading trainer of quality stock, it is more likely to improve, otherwise he wouldn't keep it for long.

If the horse has been running figures that are very slow for the class and then suddenly develops, I would tend to think he has more to go even if there was significant improvement. If the trainer thought he was as terrible as he looked when he got started, he probably would have dropped him in class.

IMO, it's all clues. There are no formulas.