Its looking more and more like a COMPLETE field collapse unless Mobil was significantly wider than the chart indicates.

If Mobil was only three wide and you gave him credit for a 3.1, Leroid would still have 4.75 ability lengths to subract. At a mile I"m not sure how many lengths a point is worth, but I'm assuming about 1.6 lengths to point.

That would place Leroid at about a Zero. 4.75 / 1.6 = 2.97 points faster than Mobil. (I said a neg 4.2 originally that was clearly an error.)

Subtract another point on weight and it is still not believeable.

The facts are STILL overwhelming for field collapse.

-6th as fast on comparable final time.
-6th horses capable of 2's perhaps
-Surface becoming faster due to drying out.
-Number of field sitting on bounces due to multiple point tops
-Unlikelihood of Frankel getting a near 6 yr old to jump 3 points after running him multiple times at a consistent number. (more likely than a 6 point jump...lol)

It may not happen very often or may not have happened as often in the past, but this time field collapse is the most viable explanation for the 8 length walkover unless the hand time for the 6th comes back significantly slower than 1.47.25

There, I got it out of my system. These optical races are fun and are the best way to find value.



Edited 6 time(s). Last edit at 09/19/2005 04:26PM by Chuckles_the_Clown2.