Bit-- I consider the distance to be neither a plus or a minus, but a question mark, less so than I did last time, given that he had that trip and still ran a decent number. It's also a question mark for 2 other relevant horses (even more than for us, since they haven't tried it).

No, we haven't done studies like that, in part because we didn't think of it, but probably won't anyway because of the small number of races that long here. If we did do it, something like you describe would be the study to run-- how they run vs. previous top.

Basically, my gut feel is that the TGI would be a decent indicator, but I would also look at the dam side, and of course the horse's history at the longer distances he has run, and to some degree, running style.

STB-- that's the first I'm hearing about big soft turf efforts causing bounces. We haven't done a study, and the details matter-- like, whether they did the same study for firm turf big efforts. I would be interested in knowing more.