Re: Let's Make It Official (466 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: September 25, 2005 01:47PM
First of all, thanks guys.
Those of us who look at figures know that SF had indeed run good figures for two different trainers in different parts of the country, had not moved up in his DMR start, and almost certainly did not run a new top yesterday, unless the second and possibly third horses did as well. THE FIGURES HE HAD PREVIOUSLY RUN WERE WHAT MADE US RUN IN THOSE TWO SPOTS (and handicap the race the way we did), so it would be really silly to think that his running well there was just a coincidence, and due to improvement. The whole point of what we do is to find horses who don't look as good to the public (the dreaded box score) as they really are-- ability vs. accomplishment, with the goal of turning the former into the latter.
As for the rain-- Vlado went into an even deeper depression than usual when the track went sloppy. I told him that the horse was historically neutral, and that 3 siblings (now off the sheet because he's a 5yo) had run tops on off tracks. That reduced him to only mildly anxious.
I don't think the slop made any difference, and I think it will be reflected in the figures they ran. All the contenders were at least slop neutral (Lord of the Game may be plus), and all the right horses were there at the end, at about where their recent good races would put them when you factor in weight and ground.
We'll probably run in the BC because there is an awful lot of upside, and no place else to run. There aren't that many real contenders, they pay down to fifth, and in NY there is a good chance they will take the drug issue seriously, like they did at Santa Anita, and by all accounts (and results, especially in terms of figures run) did not last year. A top 4 finish would be a big win, and after having this horse much more than win himself out in 2 starts, and do enough to stand at stud somewhere, everything else is gravy.