TGJB,

>Those of us who look at figures know that SF had indeed run good figures for two different trainers in different parts of the country, had not moved up in his DMR start, and almost certainly did not run a new top yesterday, unless the second and possibly third horses did as well.<

It's highly unlikely he ran his best ever speed figure yesterday, but he was extremely game against horses of slightly higher quality than he was facing elsewhere on a track that certainly was not helping horses close. I like this performance at least as much (probably more) than his fast races against cheaper horses under less competitive circumstances.

He certainly didn't run a new top on speed figures at Del Mar, but there are plenty of pace handicappers around that thought he ran a better race that day than he had in any race up until that point. I am sure most thought (all else being equal) that he was going to fire a huge shot yesterday relative to the speed figure he was assigned at Del Mar. Many probably bet him off that race. :) Most of the horses he was racing before that race would have finished 30 lengths out of it at Del Mar even with a good trip. Just look at the figures and records of some of the horses that got buried out there relative to what he was racing against prior. They didn't all run poorly or at the lower end of their typical range. They got torched.

It's really a matter of semantics.

If a new top means running a higher speed figure, then he hasn't fired a new top. However, in the ROTW even TG conceded that he had a terrible trip while wide against a fast Grade 1 pace at Del Mar. For those of us that work diligently to quantify aspects of trip like dueling wide against higher quality horses than yourself and being wide into a fast pace etc.. we believe he ran a new top that day.

Why is that inconsistent with the more general TG view on his trip or the excellent purchase recommendation based on prior speed figures?

All we are doing is quantifying that trip based on years of research and coming to a conclusion that tends to hold up in subsequent racing.








Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 09/25/2005 04:13PM by classhandicapper.