In situations like this--first-time route, first-time turf, etc.--I rely heavily on the sire profile, and to a lesser extent on the trainer profile (it depends on the trainer.) For Rolling Sea's sire Sefapiano, you'll notice his TGI improves slightly between "Less than 1M" and "1M and over"--not the case for Lovely Love and Lampoon. Also, note that trainer Hazelton is 40% to get a pair up or better after a new top. I used Lovely Love (same trainer) in the play for that reason. Since Rolling Sea was likely to go off at longer odds, she was the pick.
Regarding bounces: It's been my experience that a young horse that wakes up suddenly after a couple of races is more likely to maintain that wake-up number as a level. In this particular race, the best any horse had run at a mile or more was a 13, so even a bouncing 4 points would give Rolling Sea a shot here.
Finally, the inevitable footnote: I didn't bet the race. I put in my bets early in the day and I'm working on the next day's analyses when the races are being run. You correctly saw the horse would be overlooked. Prior to the race, I believed one would be lucky to get between 3 and 4 to 1--what Lovely Love went off at. Such is racing.



TGnick