TGJB Wrote:
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> SoCal-- I'm taking a few days off (in NoCal), so I
> won't be checking the board that often, but I saw
> this and have a little time, so...
>
> There are two different issues here: how I "know"
> a figure is correct, and how you (the customer)
> do. I know from all the ways that I use to make
> the figures themselves, which I have discussed
> here many times at length, and I have access to a
> lot of information you do not when doing so-- all
> the other figures that must be assigned if I give
> the one in question (they are connected as you
> say, one can't be changed without changing the
> others), the lifetime figure histories of the
> other horses in the race, the other races, the
> history of what the track does, run-ups, track
> maintenance etc.
>
> You do not have any of that information, except on
> those rare occasions I post whole races after they
> have been run with figures (Gold cup etc.). So how
> do you know? You can't know about an individual
> figure before the fact, but you have some ways of
> making global determinations as to whose figures
> to trust:
>
> 1-- You keep an eye on what horses out of that
> race (or that part of the country) do going
> forward. The two recent Mid-Atlantic shippers are
> just two to come from there to NYRA-- I seem to
> remember a lot running at Saratoga. And I seem to
> recall a horse called Super Frolic that someone
> bought from there and raced elsewhere based on
> those figures. One caveat here is to remember that
> some horses won't fire shipping or first time over
> a track, but if a significant number of horses
> from a location are running to their figures-- not
> consistently running big new tops, not
> consistently running no better than 3 points off
> their tops-- the figures are right or close.
>
> In looking at individual races (or days), it is
> important to keep in mind that horses other than
> the winner come out of them. Example-- the Gold
> Cup, where you could argue either way what Borrego
> would do going forward, but it was simply
> ridiculous to think that all the other horses
> would run MANY points worse than they usually did
> on the same day (as Ragozin had it), but then jump
> WAY forward again next time out.
>
> 2-- You can use common sense. That was what was
> behind all the examples of silly Ragozin figures I
> gave pre BC, and we had some more examples coming
> out of it (like Borrego getting a better number
> for running tenth than winning the Gold Cup
> laughing). This also applies to checking on the
> reasoning used to make the figures (I've quoted
> Ragozin's own words on assuming the track does not
> change speed, for example, and showed scientific
> evidence for why it is absolutely wrong). Also to
> someone's willingness to explain their reasoning,
> and post figures for whole races to expose them to
> critical analysis (when someone consistently
> doesn't want to answer questions, there's a reason
> for it, both here and in politics, and that's a
> non-partisan comment. I voted for the guy the
> first time).
>
> On the other hand, I have several times pointed
> out IN ADVANCE times where you would be able to
> track major errors those guys had made with a
> group of horses-- 01 BC at belmont, 7/27/05 last 2
> dirt races at Sar, Gold Cup this year, etc. And by
> the way, I will give free data for a month to
> anyone that can get Friedman to post those 7/27
> Saratoga races on their site and keep them there
> for a week.
>
> There is obviously a lot more to say on this
> subject, but that'll do for now. Short answer--
> you need to figure out who figures to be right,
> because in an individual case you won't have a way
> to know before the fact.
>
> And I don't mind these conversations at all.
>
>
Jerry and crew. Above one of the reasons I SPEND my $$$ on your product. Thanks for your Bonus to the users over the between holiday week.Good year with about a 1.75% return on bet ammount,handicaping tool expense,and travelexpense. With rebate my return in gross $$ was more significant than my day job which I've done for 32 yrs. THANKS FOR THE INTEGRITY OF YOUR SERVICE AND THE PASSION YOU HAVE FOR IT TO BE THE BEST. HAPPY AND HEALTHY NEW YEAR TO YOU AND YOU ORGANIZATION.