Then again, the California horses ran very well didn't they? Canteen was clearly best. Maybe a California 5 did take it, though agreed it was a watcher. Would they finish as they did if they run it again in 3 weeks?

Brother Derek ran a good race too.

He didnt face much but Lawyer Ron was probably the day's most interesting horse.

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> TGJB
>
> First, I want to say good job. I think that
> Unbridled Energy was an excellent play, and your
> sheets pointed him out ahead of time as one of
> only two possible winners. With the $9.60 payoff,
> I think he represented excellent value. When I
> said I thought the race was not bettable, I was
> revealing my prejudice against short fields.
> Usually the mutuel take is spread out over fewer
> combinations and results in a stiffer burden in
> short fields, so I generally avoid them.
>
> In my original message, I meant that I find a lot
> of times with your sheets (and with good results,
> I might add) I am often betting against California
> horses when they ship elsewhere and am often
> betting on shippers into Southern California when
> I am betting there. The reason for this seems to
> be (and I apologize for being vague here) that
> horses seem to get numbers worse than you would
> expect in the races run in California by looking
> at them on the racing form. I realize how awful
> that sounds, but let me try to explain it a
> different way.
>
> You ask a specific question comparing two of UE's
> races. I think the number you gave UE in the
> Malibu was right on, but irrelevant to the point I
> am trying to make. Since UE was coming off a
> layoff in the Malibu, I was willing to forgive it.
> GG did run some bad races elsewhere as you point
> out, but his two best races were outside
> California. When I analyze a race, I am looking
> at patterns and a horse's overall career to
> determine what number the horse will run today. In
> a graded stakes race for very young 4 yos, you
> expect them to be getting close to their tops or
> better (unless there is an extenuating
> circumstance). When I did that analysis, what
> impressed me in this race was that the horses with
> the two fastest tops ran those numbers outside
> California. No horse in the entire race every
> broke a '4' running in California. Look at the
> sheets...tons of numbers run in California winning
> good purses, but not one quicker than a '4'. Then
> look to see if any of the horses in the race have
> broken through 4. GG did it twice -- in Illinois
> and Kentucky. UE did it twice...in Florida and
> Kentucky. Sort it Out did it twice ......in New
> York and Kentucky. Now this race may not be the
> best example since those numbers run outside of
> California were largely run in open or graded
> stakes company whereas the California numbers were
> largely run in allowance races or restricted
> stakes. However, a lot of times with the speed
> figures we are trying to bet allowance horses
> running against stakes horses so that we can take
> money from class handicappers.
>
> In the end, I am not complaining about anything.
> I just note that this is something that people
> discuss on the board from time to time, and I
> thought this race was a good illustration of the
> principle people have discussed. I am very
> pleased with the numbers. I think that the money
> bet on Canteen and Distorted was based on peoples'
> perception of the overall quality of California
> racing. From my read of your sheets, the quality
> of California racing is inferior to conventional
> wisdom. It is things like that which give you the
> edge...as long as it is correct (like it was
> today).
>
> If people are going to follow up on this issue,
> another worthwhile race to look at is the sprint
> stakes that opened up the Breeders Cup card at
> Belmont in 2005. I know that I threw out a
> Mullins's horse (Squire something or other) and
> Ghostofachance (or something like that) both
> because the California numbers for them looked
> awful (who remembers a previous rendition of the
> Grade 1 Ancient Title providing its competitors
> such slow numbers?). Both of those horses ended
> up exceeding what I expected of them that day.
>
> I really do not have an agenda or an axe to grind
> here. I am very pleased with the product and not
> looking for anything different. As I said before,
> I am just highlighting some examples that go with
> discussion that has been conducted on this board
> previously.