Re: Brother Derek (661 Views)
Posted by:
bobphilo (IP Logged)
Date: January 16, 2006 01:23PM
One can’t just judge pace by looking at raw fractions without regard to track speed anymore than you can just use unadjusted final times. You have to look at the splits in relation to the final time. For a 2-turn mile run in 1:36.11, the splits were honest.
I do agree that Stevie Wonderboy might have won under different circumstances, but that was because he lost about 2 lengths on the turns while Brother Derek rode the rail. That’s why I suspect Jerry will give them both about the same figure with SW maybe a bit better. The problem is that with his running style, he always goes wide, so in a rematch, the result would depend on the trip.
Of course, as I said earlier, when Stevie gets a few more races under his belt and the distances stretch out, he should do even better, so he is right on track for the Triple Crown races. Brother Derek may or may not have distance limitations, but my main concern with him is that he may be peaking too soon.
Bob