Appearances can be deceiving. Lots of horses can seem to be running easily while setting a pretty good pace. While it’s true that in the average race the 3rd quarter fraction tends to slow down, a good horse can run a good first half and still throw in a fast 3rd quarter and not pay the price until the final eight (which is what we saw in the San Rafael). I think using the fractions of other route races that day is not a particularly good way to determine track speed because it introduces the confounding variable of how much the horses are being rated in those races.
I find the best way to determine whether a pace was fast, slow or medium for a given race is to compare the time for the first half with the second half. If there’s a big difference, the pace was hot and the front-runner probably cooked himself. The other extreme is when there is no difference or the last half is actually faster than the first (rarely seen), which gives the front-runner a big advantage. The best way of doing this is to compare how much faster than even pace the fractions for the half and 3 quarters are, given the final time. In the San Rafael Brother Derek’s half and 3 quarter splits were 1.26 and 1.68 seconds respectively faster than even (or ideal) pace for a frontrunner. My research has shown that anything under a second difference is slow and greatly helps the front-runner. Anything much over 2 seconds (haven’t worked out the exact number yet) and we have a hot pace with the advantage going to the closer (especially the plodders). Brother Derek’s splits were well within the medium range.
To say the San Rafael pace was slow is to do a disservice to both horses. It implies that DB can only win by stealing the race with a slow pace and that SW is a plodder that is doomed by a slow pace. Neither is true since the pace was realistic and the race was decided by ability and trips.

Bob