Re: Stevie Wonder Boy and Greeley's Galaxy (512 Views)
Posted by:
Tabitha (IP Logged)
Date: February 07, 2006 11:38AM
marcus Wrote:
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> Giacomo ran alot of races before improving when
> running a pair of 4 1/2 pt tops , then bounced
> badly which was followed by about a year lay off
> .
>
> Greeley's Galaxy ran down to a negative number
> aka kimmel style in 4 races , then backed up
> almost 6 pts next time and then after that ,
> another 4 pt backward move in the Pim race ,
> ending the year with another terrible number @ SA
> , then on short rest , he runs his 2nd best number
> in his 1st 4 yo race and again on short rest to
> the Stub .
Granted, Greeley's recent Past Performances lack the spacing he started his career with. The other thing that became clear after the Illinois Derby is that Greeley suddenly wasn't as forwardly placed. Perhaps that was due in part to training to get the Triple Crown distances. That trend held until the San Fernando when he finally showed signs of life again and raced near the front. Saturday, he was set to pop, but was four lengths back in the early running, however he was facing better horses again. Interestingly he's faced Giacomo 3 times now and can't seem to finish in front of him.
The race may come when someone wants to speculate that Greeley can return to that Negative 2 in the Illinois Derby. You'll want very good odds to make that speculation, certainly much higher than 7-2, because you're not going to win that race with Greeley on the basis of that Negative 2 Back Figure.
To win again against better horses at 1-1/8 miles, Greeley is going to need to catch the good part of a carrying track and he's going to have to have a pace advantage so he doesn't get discouraged running from behind.
>
> GG had a number he could run back too but didn't
> is not an anomily . Probably needed more time in
> between the last few races .
>
> So what are you saying , that you don't agree w/
> the numbers or that the horse ( or a horse ) could
> not run off that line ? If your point is that you
> where right about a race ok but remember that
> doesn't necesarily mean everybody else was wrong
> and you might very well be right about a race but
> not for the reasons you think - it happens all the
> time , specially if one becomes a little too ego
> involved .
>
> As far as 20/20 hind site on trip or pace stuff -
> my personal inclination is in many or most of
> these previously run races is that , I don't care
> how a horse runs a number . To say a horse ran or
> didn't a number due pace is as viable as saying
> that a horse not taking to a particular surface
> was cause for failure and is subjective to a large
> degree .
>
> I don't have Brass Hats sheet in my computor ...
>
>
>
> Edited 3 times. Last edit at 02/07/06 07:57AM by
> marcus.