Alan wrote ROTW this week, he's off today and tomorrow. My guess is that he was just giving a rough estimate, by way of example.

But in general, that's a good way to figure out what price you should accept-- estimate the horse's chance of running his number, and the percentage chance of winning if he does. If you multiply them, you get a rough estimate of the overall chance of the horse winning.

I wrote a column discussing this in the DRF before the Belmont one year, saying Silver Charm was about 50% to run another good one, and 50% to win if he did, meaning that he was only 25% to win the race. For whatever reason it got Baffert really pissed off, and he called me all kinds of names in a column in the NY Post. Took about a year before we got past it.